In a New York Times/CBS News survey released late last week, Trump led the GOP field among Republican primary voters with 35 percent to 16 percent for Ted Cruz and 13 percent for Ben Carson. The rest of the candidates took a combined 26 percent. So, yes, Trump’s lead matters. But…
It also matters that Republican primary voters constituted only 38 percent of those interviewed by the Times/CBS pollsters. If you take 35 percent of 38 percent, you are talking about 13 percent of Americans. This is almost exactly the same percentage that George Wallace, who ran a racist-populist third-party presidential campaign, won in 1968 against Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey.
Was the Wallace campaign important? Yes. Did Wallace speak for anywhere close to a majority of Americans? No. The same is true of Trump.—–E.J. Dionne,“Trump Should Be No Match for the Moderate Majority,” Washington Post (12/14/15)